S&P 500 Index (^SPX)

The Beginning of the Soft Landing Fed Cutting Cycle is VERY Bullish

The Federal Reserve has achieved a rare soft landing with rate cuts, while maintaining economic growth. Key indicators like all- time highs in Industrials and upward GDP revisions signal market strength. With steady job growth and inflation under control, the outlook for stocks remains bullish heading into the holiday season.

Short The VIX: Get Yourself an Early Christmas Present

Trade Idea

Black Swan Party

Tue, Sep 17

Short The VIX: Get Yourself an Early Christmas Present

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision may bring volatility, offering a strategic opportunity. Despite market uncertainty, fundamentals remain strong with rising industrials, job growth, and revised GDP. We expect the VIX to drop to $12- $13 by December. Position yourself with $VIX puts and $SPX call options to take advantage of the year- end rally.

Wealth Augmentation Vs. Wealth Preservation

Trade Idea

Punk Rock Weekly

Fri, Sep 13

Wealth Augmentation Vs. Wealth Preservation

Investment is high- stakes, like gambling. At Punk Rock Traders, we embrace risk with high- return options trades. With markets at new highs and recent volatility, our strategies use both long- term LEAPS and short- term derivatives to capture opportunities.

There’s a Seasonal Window for a Killer VIX Short

Trade Idea

Black Swan Party

Tue, Sep 10

There’s a Seasonal Window for a Killer VIX Short

Fear drives action more than historical evidence. Despite Wall Street’s fear tactics, retail traders now have opportunities to capitalize on volatility. Recent VIX spikes suggest a potential calm in the coming weeks. Consider the October $17 VIX puts for high- risk, high- reward trading.

Jobs Report Comes in Soft, But Not Recession Soft

Trade Idea

Punk Rock Weekly

Fri, Sep 6

Jobs Report Comes in Soft, But Not Recession Soft

The latest jobs report shows continued labor market strength with unemployment at 4.2% and 142,000 jobs added in August. Despite a slight miss in job expectations, the report supports a potential 25 bps rate cut and indicates a stable economic outlook rather than imminent recession.

Guest Trade Ideas

Wed, Sep 4

An Elegant Solution to Buying the Dip

Investing in index ETFs such as SPY and QQQ offers broad market exposure and diversification. To enhance returns, leveraging ETFs like TQQQ during market pullbacks can be effective. This strategy of ’buying the dip’ with leveraged ETFs aims to maximize long- term gains while managing volatility.

Performance After Rate Cuts, and Election-Year Q4 Seasonality

Punk Rock Technicals

Mon, Sep 2

Performance After Rate Cuts, and Election-Year Q4 Seasonality

This week’s analysis covers trend and risk monitoring, market behavior post- rate policy changes, and a comparison of diversified versus Max Sharpe portfolios. Key insights include varied market outcomes during rate- cutting cycles, election year seasonality, and individual asset performance for S&P, gold, BTC, and NVDA.

Black Swan Party

Tue, Aug 27

Keep Calm and Short the VIX

Understanding VIX behavior is crucial for traders. The VIX often reverts to its mode rather than its mean, making the mode a more practical target for trading. After the recent historic volatility event, the VIX has started to calm, suggesting a quieter September. With a focus on shorting VIX options, this article provides insights into capitalizing on the post- election volatility crush and the unique behavior of VIX European expiration options.

Punk Rock Weekly

Sat, Aug 24

Powell Sticks The Soft Landing

Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signaled a strong dovish shift, opening the door to potential rate cuts in September. This move is highly bullish for markets, especially with Q2 earnings showing 13.3% growth. As the Fed begins easing, the stage is set for a potential market rally in the year’s final quarter.

Punk Rock Weekly

Fri, Aug 16

The Day Inflation Died

The latest CPI report indicates inflation has finally cooled, boosting the odds of a September Fed rate cut to 100%. Markets reacted positively, with trades like $VIX shorts and $NVDA long strangles yielding significant gains. The economy appears to be in a soft- landing mode, suggesting continued market strength. As inflation concerns fade, focus shifts to the labor market, where constructive data further supports the bullish outlook. This article discusses how these trends align with our successful inv...

Research

Trade Ideas

Stock Lists

S&P 500 Index (^SPX)

The Beginning of the Soft Landing Fed Cutting Cycle is VERY Bullish

Short The VIX: Get Yourself an Early Christmas Present

Wealth Augmentation Vs. Wealth Preservation

There’s a Seasonal Window for a Killer VIX Short

Jobs Report Comes in Soft, But Not Recession Soft

An Elegant Solution to Buying the Dip

Performance After Rate Cuts, and Election-Year Q4 Seasonality

Keep Calm and Short the VIX

Powell Sticks The Soft Landing

The Day Inflation Died

The Ideas Wall Street Won’t Give You