FOMC Updates

Provides weekly analysis of the Federal Reserve and economic data, offering directional trades on SPX futures and options while highlighting key support and resistance levels through technical and fundamental analysis.

The Beginning of the Soft Landing Fed Cutting Cycle is VERY Bullish

FOMC Updates

Wed, Sep 18

The Beginning of the Soft Landing Fed Cutting Cycle is VERY Bullish

The Federal Reserve has achieved a rare soft landing with rate cuts, while maintaining economic growth. Key indicators like all- time highs in Industrials and upward GDP revisions signal market strength. With steady job growth and inflation under control, the outlook for stocks remains bullish heading into the holiday season.

In Markets, Make Fear And Confusion Your Friends

FOMC Updates

Fri, Aug 30

In Markets, Make Fear And Confusion Your Friends

This article examines the Texas Sharp Shooter Fallacy and how misconceptions about randomness and recession fears can mislead investors. Despite widespread fears, the U.S. economy is stronger than it appears, offering investment opportunities as recession predictions often prove incorrect.

FOMC Updates

Wed, Aug 21

The “Fed-amental” Attribution Error

The Federal Reserve is shifting its focus from inflation to labor, with Jay Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech likely outlining plans for loosening monetary policy. Despite recent inflation control, the effectiveness of traditional Fed tools is being questioned as the U.S. economy shows surprising resilience. Wealth concentration and the aftermath of COVID- 19 have altered the impact of higher interest rates, leading to a stronger, more durable economy. The implications of this shift could be profound...

Inflation is Dead For Now, But Geopolitical Risk Could Bring it Back

FOMC Updates

Wed, Aug 14

Inflation is Dead For Now, But Geopolitical Risk Could Bring it Back

The latest CPI report shows inflation easing, with the annual rate at 2.9%, marking the fourth consecutive lighter- than- expected inflation report. This trend, coupled with a soft labor market, increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with futures implying a 100% chance of a cut. As inflation risks fade, market focus shifts to economic health indicators and potential geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East. However, the overall market sentiment remains positive, w...

Herky Jerky Markets Mean the Fed Put is Back

FOMC Updates

Wed, Aug 7

Herky Jerky Markets Mean the Fed Put is Back

Recent market volatility spiked due to a soft labor report and geopolitical risks, with the VIX experiencing one of its largest spikes ever. The rapid recovery suggests that immediate panic may be over, and the Fed’s flexibility to cut rates could stabilize the market further. However, tensions in the Middle East could reignite volatility. Investors should stay cautious and use strategies to manage risk while capitalizing on more stable volatility levels.

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FOMC Updates

The Beginning of the Soft Landing Fed Cutting Cycle is VERY Bullish

In Markets, Make Fear And Confusion Your Friends

The “Fed-amental” Attribution Error

Inflation is Dead For Now, But Geopolitical Risk Could Bring it Back

Herky Jerky Markets Mean the Fed Put is Back

The Ideas Wall Street Won’t Give You