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FOMC Updates

Provides weekly analysis on Federal Reserve policies and economic data, offering directional trades on SPX futures and options while highlighting key support and resistance levels through technical and fundamental analysis.

Santa Claus Rally: Why Markets Are Poised for a Strong Finish
FOMC Updates

Santa Claus Rally: Why Markets Are Poised for a Strong Finish

The global bull market is thriving, with the anticipated Santa Claus rally on the horizon, fueled by robust U.S. economic growth, resilient consumer spending, and record-breaking holiday forecasts. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, optimism reigns as mega-cap tech companies continue to dominate, and investor confidence soars. With Federal Reserve rate cuts expected and seasonal tailwinds in play, the market is primed for a strong finish to 2024.

Santa Clause Trade: CPI Coming in as Expected Means Santa is Likely on His Way
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FOMC Updates

Santa Clause Trade: CPI Coming in as Expected Means Santa is Likely on His Way

December is shaping up to deliver a strong finish for markets, with CPI data aligning with expectations and the Fed likely to cut rates at its upcoming meeting. Historical trends favor a Santa Claus rally, with 80% odds of positive returns during this period. Combined with robust U.S. economic growth, double-digit earnings projections for 2025, and improving consumer optimism, the market’s bullish momentum seems set to continue.

Donald Trump vs. Jay Powell
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FOMC Updates

Donald Trump vs. Jay Powell

The Federal Reserve’s independence is under potential scrutiny, especially with the political landscape shifting post-election. We’re closely watching this high-stakes faceoff between Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jay Powell, as potential changes could ripple through stock markets, the US dollar, and global trade. In this article, explore the impact of a Fed challenged by political influence, along with strategic investment insights based on our deep understanding of Fed policies and market responses.

Israeli Response to Iran and Port Strikes Unlikely to Derail a Strong Bull Market
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FOMC Updates

Israeli Response to Iran and Port Strikes Unlikely to Derail a Strong Bull Market

Markets saw their first losing week in a month, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and fears of a strike on Iranian oil facilities. Despite this, strong economic fundamentals, positive GDP growth, and jobless claims offer a bullish outlook. The Federal Reserve is continuing gradual rate cuts, and seasonal trends point to a market recovery in November after a typical October dip. We hold positions to benefit from these patterns and expect the VIX to settle back to mid-teens levels soon.

The Dovish FOMC Trumps Geopolitical Risk and Recession Risk
FOMC Updates

The Dovish FOMC Trumps Geopolitical Risk and Recession Risk

Wall Street thrives on mastering business cycles, but with Financials and Industrials strong in 2024, we’re still in mid-cycle expansion. The Fed’s dovish stance and a strong labor market suggest more growth ahead. While October may bring some volatility, strong fundamentals and bullish earnings make dips a buying opportunity. At Punk Rock Traders, we’re ready for both short-term spikes and long-term gains.

The “Fed-amental” Attribution Error
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FOMC Updates

The “Fed-amental” Attribution Error

The Federal Reserve is shifting its focus from inflation to labor, with Jay Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech likely outlining plans for loosening monetary policy. Despite recent inflation control, the effectiveness of traditional Fed tools is being questioned as the U.S. economy shows surprising resilience. Wealth concentration and the aftermath of COVID-19 have altered the impact of higher interest rates, leading to a stronger, more durable economy. The implications of this shift could be profound as the Fed reassesses its approach in a transformed economic landscape.

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The Ideas Wall Street Won’t Give You

Punk Rock Traders delivers unconventional, high-impact trade ideas and curated stock lists you won’t find on Wall Street. Designed for those who want extraordinary returns, we turn volatility into opportunity with insights that challenge the norm.