Latest Research

The Beginning of the Soft Landing Fed Cutting Cycle is VERY Bullish

The Federal Reserve has achieved a rare soft landing with rate cuts, while maintaining economic growth. Key indicators like all- time highs in Industrials and upward GDP revisions signal market strength. With steady job growth and inflation under control, the outlook for stocks remains bullish heading into the holiday season.

Short The VIX: Get Yourself an Early Christmas Present

Trade Idea

Black Swan Party

Tue, Sep 17

Short The VIX: Get Yourself an Early Christmas Present

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision may bring volatility, offering a strategic opportunity. Despite market uncertainty, fundamentals remain strong with rising industrials, job growth, and revised GDP. We expect the VIX to drop to $12- $13 by December. Position yourself with $VIX puts and $SPX call options to take advantage of the year- end rally.

Wealth Augmentation Vs. Wealth Preservation

Trade Idea

Punk Rock Weekly

Fri, Sep 13

Wealth Augmentation Vs. Wealth Preservation

Investment is high- stakes, like gambling. At Punk Rock Traders, we embrace risk with high- return options trades. With markets at new highs and recent volatility, our strategies use both long- term LEAPS and short- term derivatives to capture opportunities.

Trade Idea

Trade of the Week

Thu, Sep 12

Walking the Dog

Explore high- risk opportunities with Walgreens’ deeply discounted LEAPS. With the stock at 52- week lows, learn how strategic options can offer high returns while controlling risk. Our analysis shows how to capitalize on undervalued stocks and navigate market challenges.

Black Swan Party

Tue, Sep 10

There’s a Seasonal Window for a Killer VIX Short

Fear drives action more than historical evidence. Despite Wall Street’s fear tactics, retail traders now have opportunities to capitalize on volatility. Recent VIX spikes suggest a potential calm in the coming weeks. Consider the October $17 VIX puts for high- risk, high- reward trading.

Trade Idea

Punk Rock Weekly

Fri, Sep 6

Jobs Report Comes in Soft, But Not Recession Soft

The latest jobs report shows continued labor market strength with unemployment at 4.2% and 142,000 jobs added in August. Despite a slight miss in job expectations, the report supports a potential 25 bps rate cut and indicates a stable economic outlook rather than imminent recession.

Trade Idea

Trade of the Week

Thu, Sep 5

Pain is Coming to Chinese Stocks

China’s economic challenges, including overproduction, disappointing data, and structural issues, are likely to deter investors for the rest of 2024. With downgrades from major firms like JP Morgan and ongoing struggles in key sectors, the outlook for Chinese stocks remains grim. Explore why these factors suggest a cautious approach to Chinese investments in the coming months.

Trade Idea

Guest Trade Ideas

Wed, Sep 4

An Elegant Solution to Buying the Dip

Investing in index ETFs such as SPY and QQQ offers broad market exposure and diversification. To enhance returns, leveraging ETFs like TQQQ during market pullbacks can be effective. This strategy of ’buying the dip’ with leveraged ETFs aims to maximize long- term gains while managing volatility.

Trade Ideas

^VIX

+1%

Tue, Sep 17Updated 8 PM EDT, Sep 18

buy1X^VIX

put

@$15($0.87)

Expiration December 18th

Thu, Sep 12Updated 8 PM EDT, Sep 18

buy1XWBA

call

@$2.50($6.35)

Expiration January 17th, 2025

Tue, Sep 10Updated 8 PM EDT, Sep 18

buy1X^VIX

put

@$17($0.67)

Expiration October 2nd

Fri, Sep 6Updated 8 PM EDT, Sep 18

buy1XBABA

put

@$80($8.75)

Expiration September 19th, 2025

Max Profit: ∞

Max Loss: $875

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Election Year Seasonality Calls for a Long VIX Position

Trade Idea

Black Swan Party

Tue, Sep 3

Election Year Seasonality Calls for a Long VIX Position

Alpha isn’t just found—it’s created through market interaction. At Punk Rock Traders, we’re leveraging both variance premium and seasonality by balancing short VIX positions with a strategic long position. With the VIX poised for a seasonal spike in October and election volatility in play, we’re recommending the October 16th $16 VIX call option to hedge against previous short positions. Our recent VIX trades have been successful, and adding this long position aims to capitalize on anticipated volatility ...

Performance After Rate Cuts, and Election-Year Q4 Seasonality

Punk Rock Technicals

Mon, Sep 2

Performance After Rate Cuts, and Election-Year Q4 Seasonality

This week’s analysis covers trend and risk monitoring, market behavior post- rate policy changes, and a comparison of diversified versus Max Sharpe portfolios. Key insights include varied market outcomes during rate- cutting cycles, election year seasonality, and individual asset performance for S&P, gold, BTC, and NVDA.

In Markets, Make Fear And Confusion Your Friends

FOMC Updates

Fri, Aug 30

In Markets, Make Fear And Confusion Your Friends

This article examines the Texas Sharp Shooter Fallacy and how misconceptions about randomness and recession fears can mislead investors. Despite widespread fears, the U.S. economy is stronger than it appears, offering investment opportunities as recession predictions often prove incorrect.

Political Alpha: Taking a L.E.A.P. On America

Trade Idea

Trade of the Week

Thu, Aug 29

Political Alpha: Taking a L.E.A.P. On America

The U.S. economy’s strength often gets overshadowed by political rhetoric, but an objective view reveals its robust health. Despite the negative noise, inflation is under control, consumer confidence is high, and energy production is at record levels. As Jay Powell’s dovish stance suggests, the long- term outlook for U.S. debt is bright. With favorable economic conditions and a likely Harris victory boosting $TLT, U.S. debt offers a compelling opportunity for investors seeking stability and growth.

Nvidia Will Beat Earnings Expectations Today

Punk Rock Weekly

Wed, Aug 28

Nvidia Will Beat Earnings Expectations Today

Nvidia’s dominance in AI and computing is driving substantial price gains, even as it appears overvalued. Despite this, the company’s fundamentals justify its rise, and recent earnings reports highlight its ongoing strength. Nvidia’s stock, which recently rebounded sharply, shows a favorable risk/reward outlook as it continues to surpass Wall Street expectations. Our recent trade, capitalizing on this momentum, is up 125% and indicates potential for sustained growth. As the Fed’s cutting cycle begins, Nv...

Black Swan Party

Tue, Aug 27

Keep Calm and Short the VIX

Understanding VIX behavior is crucial for traders. The VIX often reverts to its mode rather than its mean, making the mode a more practical target for trading. After the recent historic volatility event, the VIX has started to calm, suggesting a quieter September. With a focus on shorting VIX options, this article provides insights into capitalizing on the post- election volatility crush and the unique behavior of VIX European expiration options.

Punk Rock Weekly

Sat, Aug 24

Powell Sticks The Soft Landing

Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signaled a strong dovish shift, opening the door to potential rate cuts in September. This move is highly bullish for markets, especially with Q2 earnings showing 13.3% growth. As the Fed begins easing, the stage is set for a potential market rally in the year’s final quarter.

FOMC Updates

Wed, Aug 21

The “Fed-amental” Attribution Error

The Federal Reserve is shifting its focus from inflation to labor, with Jay Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech likely outlining plans for loosening monetary policy. Despite recent inflation control, the effectiveness of traditional Fed tools is being questioned as the U.S. economy shows surprising resilience. Wealth concentration and the aftermath of COVID- 19 have altered the impact of higher interest rates, leading to a stronger, more durable economy. The implications of this shift could be profound...

Using Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction

Black Swan Party

Tue, Aug 20

Using Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction

Derivatives, often labeled as ’financial weapons of mass destruction’ by Warren Buffett, hold the power to significantly amplify returns, especially for sophisticated investors. This article explores how derivatives can be leveraged for high- alpha trades, the strategic advantages they offer, and how to use them effectively in today’s market environment.

Punk Rock Weekly

Fri, Aug 16

The Day Inflation Died

The latest CPI report indicates inflation has finally cooled, boosting the odds of a September Fed rate cut to 100%. Markets reacted positively, with trades like $VIX shorts and $NVDA long strangles yielding significant gains. The economy appears to be in a soft- landing mode, suggesting continued market strength. As inflation concerns fade, focus shifts to the labor market, where constructive data further supports the bullish outlook. This article discusses how these trends align with our successful inv...

Free Wheelin’ With Berkshire Hathaway Stock

Trade of the Week

Thu, Aug 15

Free Wheelin’ With Berkshire Hathaway Stock

Warren Buffett’s success is a testament to the power of compound interest, a principle central to Berkshire Hathaway’s growth. But what if you could accelerate compounding on Berkshire stock? This article explores a sophisticated options strategy—the wheel trade—that creates a synthetic dividend, allowing investors to enhance returns over time. Ideal for seasoned investors, this strategy leverages Berkshire’s low volatility and current market conditions, offering a way to outperform the stock through dis...

Inflation is Dead For Now, But Geopolitical Risk Could Bring it Back

FOMC Updates

Wed, Aug 14

Inflation is Dead For Now, But Geopolitical Risk Could Bring it Back

The latest CPI report shows inflation easing, with the annual rate at 2.9%, marking the fourth consecutive lighter- than- expected inflation report. This trend, coupled with a soft labor market, increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with futures implying a 100% chance of a cut. As inflation risks fade, market focus shifts to economic health indicators and potential geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East. However, the overall market sentiment remains positive, w...

Research

Latest Research

The Beginning of the Soft Landing Fed Cutting Cycle is VERY Bullish

Short The VIX: Get Yourself an Early Christmas Present

Wealth Augmentation Vs. Wealth Preservation

Walking the Dog

There’s a Seasonal Window for a Killer VIX Short

Jobs Report Comes in Soft, But Not Recession Soft

Pain is Coming to Chinese Stocks

An Elegant Solution to Buying the Dip

Trade Ideas

Stock Lists

More Research

Election Year Seasonality Calls for a Long VIX Position

Performance After Rate Cuts, and Election-Year Q4 Seasonality

In Markets, Make Fear And Confusion Your Friends

Political Alpha: Taking a L.E.A.P. On America

Nvidia Will Beat Earnings Expectations Today

Keep Calm and Short the VIX

Powell Sticks The Soft Landing

The “Fed-amental” Attribution Error

Using Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction

The Day Inflation Died

Free Wheelin’ With Berkshire Hathaway Stock

Inflation is Dead For Now, But Geopolitical Risk Could Bring it Back

The Ideas Wall Street Won’t Give You