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NASDAQ (^IXIC)

Weak Jobs Report and Middle East Tensions Put Markets in Precarious Position
Black Swan Party

Weak Jobs Report and Middle East Tensions Put Markets in Precarious Position

This morning’s jobs report revealed a gain of only 114,000 jobs against the expected 175,000, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, leading to a market selloff. Geopolitical tensions are also escalating in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah, following recent Israeli actions. This could provoke significant conflict, potentially driving up oil prices and increasing market volatility.

Three Things the Stock Market Can Tell Us About Elections
Black Swan Party

Three Things the Stock Market Can Tell Us About Elections

Geopolitical risk events are often non- events for markets. The market cares only for the almighty ask and bid. By removing emotion from evaluations, stock analysis adds objectivity. Historical data shows the stock market tends to perform better under Democratic Presidents and that incumbents are likelier to win if the market is positive before elections. Understanding these patterns can offer valuable insights as we approach an emotionally charged election season.

The Silver Lining to Last Week’s Market Rollercoaster: Small Cap Outperformance
Black Swan Party

The Silver Lining to Last Week’s Market Rollercoaster: Small Cap Outperformance

Last week’s spike in volatility saw the VIX hit the $16 mark and significant market drops, but signs suggest a healthy sell- off and rotation from Tech. The VIX curve remained in contango, indicating an orderly market despite the sell- off. With earnings season approaching, index volatility typically decreases. The Russell 2000’s outperformance further supports a positive outlook, signaling resilience among smaller companies. Overall, the current market structure and strong economic fundamentals suggest ...

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