Bidenomics 2.0 Stock List
Kamala Harris’s 2024 Presidential Election Winning & Losing Stocks
Winning & Losing Stocks On a Kamala Harris 2024 Presidential Election Victory
Strengths
Incumbent Advantage: Kamala Harris is the current Vice President of the United States, and the current President of the United States will do everything in his power to get her elected. Being in the incumbent party in the United States is a major advantage. This should help her electoral prospects.
Strong Economic Record: Despite the unpopularity of President Biden, the last four years have been marked by a lot of economic strength and a lot of money flowing into the country from Biden’s signature legislative achievements. Inflation has been crushed by the Federal Reserve and economic growth and the labor market have both remained strong.
Strong and Unified Democratic Party: The Democratic Party has a strong political organization marked by ‘ground game.’ Whereas the Republican Party’s electoral infrastructure has largely been hollowed out and outsourced by Trump acolytes, the Democratic Party’s electoral infrastructure remains robust and firmly grounded in civil society organizations like labor unions, neighborhood groups, and churches. Harris’s dramatic early fundraising success attests to this reality.
Stability: Part of Donald Trump’s political brand is unpredictability. Harris has taken a rather predictable path to get a shot at the Oval, and she has played it down the fairway on many policy positions. Overall, many key allies and stakeholders will trust a Harris administration more than a Trump one. Harris is not a radical politician based on her record and demeanor.
Strength With Key Party Constituencies: Harris hails from Northern California and was involved in state politics throughout much of her life. While this can sometimes be seen as a weakness in national elections, it has also given her deep roots with key party constituencies that will have to turn out in order for their to be a Democratic victory in 2024.
Weaknesses
Relatively Unknown: Despite being the sitting Vice President, Harris is relatively unknown to the American people. Her story and political record are not well understood, and this could prove a pivotal weakness if the Trump campaign is able to define her in unappealing terms. Of course, this can also be an asset to her given Trump’s high negatives.
Higher Tax Rates: A Harris administration would materially raise both corporate and capital gains taxes. This could prove an economic headwind for many companies and could result in economic growth that would be lower than without the tax raises. Many are particularly ticked off about a capital gains tax on unrealized gains.
Immigration: One of the key issues Republican plan to use against Kamala Harris is that she was border czar for the Biden administration. The center of the country is very conservative on immigration issues, but Harris’s political survival in California may have depended on taking positions that may lend to easy targeting.
California History: California is the largest state and is overwhelmingly Democratic. Therefore, what it takes to politically survive in California’s notoriously rough state politics might be the exact opposite of what it takes to get elected in a swing state. Trump and his campaign will try to paint Harris as a “California Liberal,” and this may have some effect in swing states.
Vice Presidential Record: Harris doesn’t have a lot to point to in the way of major achievements during the Biden Administration. She was the border czar and was tied to a stillborn voting rights effort. She doesn’t have a clear defining policy win that she can bring before the American people from the last four years.
Harris Potential Policy Outcomes
Harris, like Trump, will be constrained based on the legislature. If we assume it will be a close election then there is a higher chance for divided government. Wall Street tends to like divided government.
Furthermore, if there is a divided government, some of Harris’s more ambitious economic proposals like higher capital gains rates and taxes on unrealized capital gains may not be able to be passed. If they are passed, you can certainly expect some gnashing of teeth in markets.
Harris also plans to significantly raise corporate taxes which could be a major drag on some earnings, particularly companies whose obligations may radically change. Remember that earnings occur after taxes, so material changes can significantly crimp earnings power.
One good element of a Harris victory is that volatility tends to be lower when the incumbent party has a victory. Another benefit of Harris’s tax raises is that they leave the budget in much better long-term shape than Trump’s economic plan, which relied on tariffs for revenue.
Bidenomics 2.0 Stock List
Potential Winning Stocks
Caterpillar
Potential Losing Stocks
10 Stocks That Would Be Potential Winners in a Harris Presidency.
Enphase Energy
$ENPH
Technology
This home solar company helps people store and utilize solar energy. They may be the recipient of some pro-solar policy should a Harris administration be able to build on Biden's green energy progress.
Caterpillar
$CAT
Industrials
This stalwart construction firm has been benefitting from a massive construction boom partially initiated by the massive government spending that is the cornerstone of Bidenomics. Industrial policy may have its detractors, but CAT's management team likely isn't among them.
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10 Winning & 5 Losing Stocks
Stock List Updates
September 24, 2024
Added charts with key Presidential Election event markers.
September 1, 2024
Initial publication of Bidenomics 2.0 Stock List.
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