Markets saw their first losing week in a month, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and fears of a strike on Iranian oil facilities. Despite this, strong economic fundamentals, positive GDP growth, and jobless claims offer a bullish outlook. The Federal Reserve is continuing gradual rate cuts, and seasonal trends point to a market recovery in November after a typical October dip. We hold positions to benefit from these patterns and expect the VIX to settle back to mid-teens levels soon.

Risk-On Week Suggests Markets on Strong Footing

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Punk Rock Weekly

Sat, Sep 21

Risk-On Week Suggests Markets on Strong Footing

Markets rallied this week as Powell’s 50 bps cut boosted bullish sentiment. The Dow hit an all-time high, and despite possible October volatility, strong fundamentals point to a positive Q4. At Punk Rock Traders, we focus on short-term opportunities while staying bullish long-term. Don’t fear the dips—capitalize on them and ride the bull market.

Jobs Report Comes in Soft, But Not Recession Soft

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Punk Rock Weekly

Fri, Sep 6

Jobs Report Comes in Soft, But Not Recession Soft

The latest jobs report shows continued labor market strength with unemployment at 4.2% and 142,000 jobs added in August. Despite a slight miss in job expectations, the report supports a potential 25 bps rate cut and indicates a stable economic outlook rather than imminent recession.

Political Alpha: Taking a L.E.A.P. On America

Political Alpha: Taking a L.E.A.P. On America

The U.S. economy’s strength often gets overshadowed by political rhetoric, but an objective view reveals its robust health. Despite the negative noise, inflation is under control, consumer confidence is high, and energy production is at record levels. As Jay Powell’s dovish stance suggests, the long-term outlook for U.S. debt is bright. With favorable economic conditions and a likely Harris victory boosting $TLT, U.S. debt offers a compelling opportunity for investors seeking stability and growth.