Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

Research on Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

Performance After Rate Cuts, and Election-Year Q4 Seasonality

This week’s analysis covers trend and risk monitoring, market behavior post-rate policy changes, and a comparison of diversified versus Max Sharpe portfolios. Key insights include varied market outcomes during rate-cutting cycles, election year seasonality, and individual asset performance for S&P, gold, BTC, and NVDA.

The Silver Lining to Last Week’s Market Rollercoaster: Small Cap Outperformance

Free

Black Swan Party

Sun, Jul 21

The Silver Lining to Last Week’s Market Rollercoaster: Small Cap Outperformance

Last week’s spike in volatility saw the VIX hit the $16 mark and significant market drops, but signs suggest a healthy sell-off and rotation from Tech. The VIX curve remained in contango, indicating an orderly market despite the sell-off. With earnings season approaching, index volatility typically decreases. The Russell 2000’s outperformance further supports a positive outlook, signaling resilience among smaller companies. Overall, the current market structure and strong economic fundamentals suggest that volatility may remain subdued.

How Does the Presidential Election Affect Market Volatility?

Free

Black Swan Party

Fri, Jul 19

How Does the Presidential Election Affect Market Volatility?

“Quite a few ‘old adages’ regarding markets and politics are plainly false,” says Thomas Jefferson. Contrary to belief, markets perform better under Democratic presidents. Misunderstandings about market volatility can affect strategies. Analyzing election year patterns reveals opportunities, suggesting that shorting October volatility might be profitable despite uncertainty. Understanding politics and markets is key to effective investing.