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Volatility Trading

Volatility Has Collapsed, But Will it Re-Emerge? Using Fundamental Data to Predict Volatility
Black Swan Party

Volatility Has Collapsed, But Will it Re-Emerge? Using Fundamental Data to Predict Volatility

The recent VIX spike to $65 was one of the most significant in history, but it quickly reversed, highlighting the rapid changes in market sentiment. Factors like the unwinding of the carry trade, low summer liquidity, and recession fears contributed to this volatility. However, the rapid normalization of the VIX curve suggests the market remains fundamentally strong, driven by resilient corporate earnings and a robust economy. Shorting volatility into November, especially post- election, appears to be a ...

Why Last Week’s Volatility Was Largely Positive for Markets
Punk Rock Weekly

Why Last Week’s Volatility Was Largely Positive for Markets

Last week’s massive VIX spike, driven by a combination of low summer liquidity, a weak jobs report, and the unwinding of the carry trade, created a rare market event. While the spike was historic, the rapid collapse of volatility that followed is even more telling. This suggests a major opportunity for bullish trades, especially as the market now seems primed for a strong rally. Key upcoming catalysts, such as Nvidia earnings and the CPI report, are likely to reinforce this bullish sentiment.

How Does the Presidential Election Affect Market Volatility?
Black Swan Party

How Does the Presidential Election Affect Market Volatility?

“Quite a few ‘old adages’ regarding markets and politics are plainly false,” says Thomas Jefferson. Contrary to belief, markets perform better under Democratic presidents. Misunderstandings about market volatility can affect strategies. Analyzing election year patterns reveals opportunities, suggesting that shorting October volatility might be profitable despite uncertainty. Understanding politics and markets is key to effective investing.

5 Things That Could Go Right: Why Volatility Should Remain Subdued During Summer
Black Swan Party

5 Things That Could Go Right: Why Volatility Should Remain Subdued During Summer

“Bad news sells better than good news,” says Daniel Kahneman. We often focus on risks that seem urgent, even if they’re improbable. This tendency skews our financial decisions. In reality, our fears are often misplaced. To succeed, consider optimism and use volatility to your advantage. When fear peaks, it can be the best time to invest in beaten- down assets or short the VIX. By understanding and managing our instinctual responses, we can achieve better long- term returns and build wealth more effectively.

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