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VIX Spike

Volatility Has Collapsed, But Will it Re-Emerge? Using Fundamental Data to Predict Volatility
Black Swan Party

Volatility Has Collapsed, But Will it Re-Emerge? Using Fundamental Data to Predict Volatility

The recent VIX spike to $65 was one of the most significant in history, but it quickly reversed, highlighting the rapid changes in market sentiment. Factors like the unwinding of the carry trade, low summer liquidity, and recession fears contributed to this volatility. However, the rapid normalization of the VIX curve suggests the market remains fundamentally strong, driven by resilient corporate earnings and a robust economy. Shorting volatility into November, especially post- election, appears to be a ...

Why Last Week’s Volatility Was Largely Positive for Markets
Punk Rock Weekly

Why Last Week’s Volatility Was Largely Positive for Markets

Last week’s massive VIX spike, driven by a combination of low summer liquidity, a weak jobs report, and the unwinding of the carry trade, created a rare market event. While the spike was historic, the rapid collapse of volatility that followed is even more telling. This suggests a major opportunity for bullish trades, especially as the market now seems primed for a strong rally. Key upcoming catalysts, such as Nvidia earnings and the CPI report, are likely to reinforce this bullish sentiment.

Volatility Likely to Spike from Rising Middle East Tensions
Black Swan Party

Volatility Likely to Spike from Rising Middle East Tensions

“Volatility is a symptom that people have no clue of the underlying value,” says Jeremy Grantham. Last week, we saw a spike in volatility, but the orderly nature of the sell- off and the VIX curve remaining in contango suggest it wasn’t the start of a bear market. With earnings season approaching and strong performance from the Russell 2000, the market shows resilience. Despite geopolitical tensions and potential risks, the current market structure and economic fundamentals point to a more stable outlook.

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