Risk Management

Three Reasons Why Summer Volatility Will Likely Retreat and a Trade to Play It

Myron Scholes noted that risk management often fails during systemic events. Recently, I accurately predicted periods of low volatility using my VIX theory, yielding significant returns. Despite recent market fears, I believe the true mean of the VIX is lower than current levels. The economy’s resilience, potential Fed cuts, and market improvements support this outlook. Shorting volatility with strategic options can capitalize on the current market environment.

5 Things That Could Go Right: Why Volatility Should Remain Subdued During Summer

Black Swan Party

Wed, May 29

5 Things That Could Go Right: Why Volatility Should Remain Subdued During Summer

“Bad news sells better than good news,” says Daniel Kahneman. We often focus on risks that seem urgent, even if they’re improbable. This tendency skews our financial decisions. In reality, our fears are often misplaced. To succeed, consider optimism and use volatility to your advantage. When fear peaks, it can be the best time to invest in beaten- down assets or short the VIX. By understanding and managing our instinctual responses, we can achieve better long- term returns and build wealth more effectively.

Black Swan Party

Sun, Mar 31

Fried Black Swan

“Black swan meat is delicious and has medicinal value,” according to North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun. This piece, dedicated to Daniel Kahneman and Daniel Ellsberg, explores how Black Swan risks, while feared, can be monetized. Rather than predicting crises, the key lies in profiting from the fear of such events not occurring. As geopolitical tensions rise, understanding and leveraging these market anomalies can turn fear into opportunity.

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Risk Management

Three Reasons Why Summer Volatility Will Likely Retreat and a Trade to Play It

5 Things That Could Go Right: Why Volatility Should Remain Subdued During Summer

Fried Black Swan

The Ideas Wall Street Won’t Give You