Geopolitical Risk

Three Things the Stock Market Can Tell Us About Elections

Geopolitical risk events are often non- events for markets. The market cares only for the almighty ask and bid. By removing emotion from evaluations, stock analysis adds objectivity. Historical data shows the stock market tends to perform better under Democratic Presidents and that incumbents are likelier to win if the market is positive before elections. Understanding these patterns can offer valuable insights as we approach an emotionally charged election season.

Volatility Likely to Spike from Rising Middle East Tensions

Black Swan Party

Wed, Jul 31

Volatility Likely to Spike from Rising Middle East Tensions

“Volatility is a symptom that people have no clue of the underlying value,” says Jeremy Grantham. Last week, we saw a spike in volatility, but the orderly nature of the sell- off and the VIX curve remaining in contango suggest it wasn’t the start of a bear market. With earnings season approaching and strong performance from the Russell 2000, the market shows resilience. Despite geopolitical tensions and potential risks, the current market structure and economic fundamentals point to a more stable outlook.

Black Swan Party

Mon, Jun 10

Shake Your Tail (Risk) Feather

“Foreign policy involves imperfect decisions and shifting dynamics,” says Chuck Hagel. Using math, like power laws, helps us understand geopolitical risks. For example, the more casualties in a conflict, the sooner it might end. This insight can guide investors, as overestimating geopolitical risks often leads to missed opportunities. By understanding and leveraging these probabilities, investors can make more informed decisions and potentially capitalize on market overreactions.

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Geopolitical Risk

Three Things the Stock Market Can Tell Us About Elections

Volatility Likely to Spike from Rising Middle East Tensions

Shake Your Tail (Risk) Feather

The Ideas Wall Street Won’t Give You