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Economic outlook 2024

Israeli Response to Iran and Port Strikes Unlikely to Derail a Strong Bull Market
FOMC Updates

Israeli Response to Iran and Port Strikes Unlikely to Derail a Strong Bull Market

Markets saw their first losing week in a month, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and fears of a strike on Iranian oil facilities. Despite this, strong economic fundamentals, positive GDP growth, and jobless claims offer a bullish outlook. The Federal Reserve is continuing gradual rate cuts, and seasonal trends point to a market recovery in November after a typical October dip. We hold positions to benefit from these patterns and expect the VIX to settle back to mid-teens levels soon.

Three Reasons Why Summer Volatility Will Likely Retreat and a Trade to Play It
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Black Swan Party

Three Reasons Why Summer Volatility Will Likely Retreat and a Trade to Play It

Myron Scholes noted that risk management often fails during systemic events. Recently, I accurately predicted periods of low volatility using my VIX theory, yielding significant returns. Despite recent market fears, I believe the true mean of the VIX is lower than current levels. The economy’s resilience, potential Fed cuts, and market improvements support this outlook. Shorting volatility with strategic options can capitalize on the current market environment.

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