Punk Rock WeeklyFri September 27, 2024If You Mess With a Bull Market, You’ll Get The HornsMarkets showed strong fundamentals this week despite mixed sector performance. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, came in lighter than expected, paving the way for rate cuts. Semiconductor stocks rallied, and the VIX stayed low, benefiting short-term volatility trades. With upward GDP revisions and resilient consumer savings, this mid-cycle bull market looks strong, even with some election-related volatility ahead.
FreeBlack Swan PartyThu July 18, 2024Why Yesterday’s Volatility Spike Should Be Shorted“Volatility is a symptom that people have no clue of the underlying value,” says Jeremy Grantham. Understanding volatility’s patterns is crucial for navigating market fluctuations. Despite recent spikes, volatility often reverts to its mean and clusters around certain events. Current economic conditions, such as strong labor markets and subdued inflation, suggest that volatility may remain lower than expected. Yesterday’s market movements, driven by a mix of relief rallies and geopolitical concerns, highlight the complex but ultimately bullish landscape ahead.