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CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) Option Idea

O:VIXW241113P00017000
Tickers^VIXO:VIXW241113P00017000
Latest+255.17%3:41 PM EST, Nov 12, 2024
Best+255.17%3:41 PM EST, Nov 12, 2024
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Trade Updates: Election Volatility, Seasonal Trends, and What’s Next
Black Swan Party

Trade Updates: Election Volatility, Seasonal Trends, and What’s Next

Election volatility delivered gains, and our strategy to short the VIX on Election Day paid off with a 210% return in just a few sessions. Our analysis predicted an implied volatility crush, tapping into an 80% historical likelihood, and we positioned deep out-of-the-money for maximum returns. We’ve also scored wins across several other trade ideas, reinforcing our approach of leveraging calculated, high-reward opportunities. As we move forward, our portfolio includes tactical plays in high-potential sectors with a focus on consistent, data-driven trades.

US Elections and the VIX Play: Explaining Our Successful Election Volatility Short
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Guest Trade Ideas

US Elections and the VIX Play: Explaining Our Successful Election Volatility Short

This election season, our Head of Research, Chris Robb, called a successful short on the VIX, predicting an implied volatility crush—now up 200% in three sessions. This move follows a historically observed pattern: uncertainty rises pre-election, pushing volatility up, while post-election, as clarity returns, volatility tends to drop. With an 80% probability of decline in VIX after elections since 2004, pattern-based trades like this can provide unique opportunities for high returns when timed right.

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