Punk Rock Traders are positioned for a post-election volatility crush with $VIX put options in November and December. However, rising odds of a Trump victory and bond market tension could lead to a volatility spike. With election uncertainty and geopolitical risks looming, this article explores the potential for market turbulence and strategic options plays to capitalize on it.

What Can The Stock Market Tell Us About the Election?

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Market Update Videos

Sun October 20, 2024

What Can The Stock Market Tell Us About the Election?

Chris Robb, Head of Research at Punk Rock Traders, breaks down how the stock market can predict elections and how volatility around election time impacts trades. In this video, Chris highlights a 99% gain on a VIX trade and shares insights on the relationship between stock performance and election outcomes. Learn how Punk Rock Traders navigates election volatility with calculated trades.

Short The VIX: Get Yourself an Early Christmas Present

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Black Swan Party

Tue September 17, 2024

Short The VIX: Get Yourself an Early Christmas Present

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision may bring volatility, offering a strategic opportunity. Despite market uncertainty, fundamentals remain strong with rising industrials, job growth, and revised GDP. We expect the VIX to drop to $12-$13 by December. Position yourself with $VIX puts and $SPX call options to take advantage of the year-end rally.

Jobs Report Comes in Soft, But Not Recession Soft

Punk Rock Weekly

Fri September 6, 2024

Jobs Report Comes in Soft, But Not Recession Soft

The latest jobs report shows continued labor market strength with unemployment at 4.2% and 142,000 jobs added in August. Despite a slight miss in job expectations, the report supports a potential 25 bps rate cut and indicates a stable economic outlook rather than imminent recession.

Election Year Seasonality Calls for a Long VIX Position

Trade Idea

Black Swan Party

Tue September 3, 2024

Election Year Seasonality Calls for a Long VIX Position

Alpha isn’t just found—it’s created through market interaction. At Punk Rock Traders, we’re leveraging both variance premium and seasonality by balancing short VIX positions with a strategic long position. With the VIX poised for a seasonal spike in October and election volatility in play, we’re recommending the October 16th $16 VIX call option to hedge against previous short positions. Our recent VIX trades have been successful, and adding this long position aims to capitalize on anticipated volatility spikes and subsequent crushes.

Research

Option Ideas

Stock Lists

CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) Option Idea

Trade Idea Mentioned in Reports

Spiking Bond Volatility Makes Us Open Short-Term VIX Calls

What Can The Stock Market Tell Us About the Election?

Short The VIX: Get Yourself an Early Christmas Present

Jobs Report Comes in Soft, But Not Recession Soft

Election Year Seasonality Calls for a Long VIX Position

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